Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs Piniella’s status for next season

CHICAGO – For the majority of the Chicago Cubs’ 2009 season, their manager, Lou Piniella, has worn a look best described as amused disgust. He forces a smile to shield himself from the reality: His Cubs are a flawed ballclub, plagued by injuries and inconsistency, and deserve their place among baseball’s biggest underachievers.

Just don’t mistake Piniella’s countenance – or the seeming lack of aggression that accompanies it – as a sign he lost interest and does not care. He said Friday he expects to be in the Cubs’ dugout again in 2010, the last year of his contract.

“My plans are to come back next year,” Piniella told Yahoo! Sports before Chicago’s 17-2 blowout against Pittsburgh that halted a five-game losing streak.

Piniella’s status for next season came into question in late June, when he would not commit to managing next year even though the Cubs exercised a $4 million option last September. The organization always assumed Piniella would manage the Cubs next season, and that has not changed.

“It’s not even a discussion for us,” Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said. “He’ll be the manager for us next year unless he chooses different.”

Should he return, the 65-year-old Piniella chooses a team defined by a century of futility, a silly curse and the special sort of fan that tosses a beer on an opponent mid-catch. Managing the Cubs is the job of a masochist, and this year has been so filled with pratfalls that it borders on sadistic, too.

There is the matter of the disabled list. The Cubs’ DL has been more like a disabled novella. Their top four starters have all spent time on it – Carlos Zambrano(notes) and Ted Lilly(notes) are there now – and their fifth, Randy Wells(notes), started the year in the minor leagues. Third baseman Aramis Ramirez(notes) dislocated his shoulder in early May and remains sidelined. Catcher Geovany Soto(notes), the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, missed a month and still can’t get his OPS much above .700. Outfielder Alfonso Soriano(notes) dislocated a pinkie and hit the DL, where he might’ve been better served to stay.

Soriano’s outright erosion in the third season of an eight-year, $136 million contract is frightening, as was the early season play of free-agent Milton Bradley(notes), whose .394 on-base percentage is offset by an equal slugging percentage. The rest of the Cubs’ lineup, save for Derrek Lee(notes) and Kosuke Fukudome(notes) a hodgepodge of mediocrity, hadn’t scored more than six runs in August until Friday’s outburst.

Compound that with sloppy defense, bad baserunning and the team’s pending sale preventing any moves to fortify the team in July, and the Cubs are stuck with the same team that went from eight All-Stars in 2008 to one this year. The talent, obviously, is there. Some synapse just isn’t firing.

“We’ve taken a big step back,” Hendry said. “We need to get going. I thought we got it back going after the break. A week ago, we were in first place. We still have time to get in. You don’t get anywhere with coulda, shoulda, wouldas. We’ll survive. You can’t dwell on what happened. The record is already in the columns.”

True, the Cubs did lead the NL Central after going 14-5 following the All-Star break. Eleven times in that span they held opponents to three runs or less, and Piniella didn’t have to feign praise. Finally, he had something to feel good about.

Not since an ill-fated three-year trial managing Tampa Bay had Piniella faced any such troubles. He oversaw the Cubs’ worst-to-first run in 2007 and won 97 games last season. Both ended in first-round postseason bomb-outs, of course. Didn’t matter: Lou was the first manager since, who – Don Zimmer? Jim Frey? Leo Durocher? Charlie Grimm? – that almost everyone on the North Side supported. He was gruff. He was bombastic. He was right.

Until the losing started – and losing isn’t really accurate, since the Cubs are 59-55. Piniella has never taken to it well. The Devil Ray years wore his patience and grew his belly. He found incredible success in his two spots prior to Tampa – winning a regular-season record 116 games in 2001 with Seattle and a World Series in 1990 with Cincinnati – and handled the New York Yankees about as well as any manager under George Steinbrenner in the 1980s.

“It’s been tough on us,” Piniella said. “I’m the first to admit it. But why complain about it. Nobody wants to hear it, and the other team basically doesn’t care.”

Actually, the other teams relish it. Of the nine franchises with $100 million-plus payrolls – the Cubs’ $135 million ranks third, behind both New York teams – only the Mets, Cubs and Astros would not make the playoffs today. The Cubs are a group of haves that have not done diddly.

“It’s been a long season,” Piniella said. “It has been grinding. It’s tiring.”

And still, Piniella wants more. Probably. The Cubs are only 4½ games behind St. Louis. One sustained run and baseball in October isn’t far-fetched. The Cubs’ starting pitching, when healthy, matches up with any team’s, even if their relievers carry the unholy stench of gasoline and hazardous materials. Should they brave the NL, winning four games against the AL’s best team isn’t the least bit inconceivable.

That happens, and Richard Daley steps aside for Mayor Lou.

More likely is the Cubs’ season dying a slow and painful death, error by error, mistake by mistake, hair-graying blunder by hair-graying blunder, leaving Piniella a real decision to make. A lucrative – and easy, by comparison – television career beckons. He’d make a mint giving speeches on leadership and confronting authority figures.

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Mid-season optimism

Depressed that our much ballyhooed 2009 Cubs were .500 at the All-Star break? Here’s 5 reasons to stoke your Cubbie-Optimism.

5. Milton Bradley is hitting .239 and slugging .369. For a guy with a .277 career average and a .451 slugging percentage, he’s severely underperforming his career numbers… and there’s a long history of ballplayers who have horrible halves of a season, but typically they come back to perform in line with their past achievements (the technical term is ‘reversion to the mean’). So, even if Milton merely performs at his career numbers, we’re looking at a 40 point bump to his average and 80 points to his slugging. Sure, Bradley might not turn it around, but with the return of Aramis Ramirez in the lineup, Bradley’s likely to see better pitches as he’ll often be batting with Ramirez on base. Or, better yet, with Ramirez protecting him from lower in the order. So, no matter how Lou fills out the lineup card, I foresee Milton as the biggest beneficiary of Ramirez’ return.

4. Geovany Soto is injured – the extra rest should help. Geovany Soto has struggled this year, but he was just starting to turn it around when he strained his oblique muscle. He’s likely to miss all of July and the first chunk of August. While no team wants to lose any starter, the Cubs are fortunate to have a solid backup in Koyie Hill. While Hill will shoulder most of the catching burden in July, Geovany Soto is getting a rare opportunity to heal from the first half of nagging injuries that notoriously destroy a catcher’s production in late August, September, and October. Provided we can make it through July, the Cubs should have a well-rested healthy starting catcher down the stretch. That could end up being a huge factor in a tight NL Central race.

3. Rich Harden will be better in the second half. Harden’s season so far has been a study in contrasts. He has a 7.59 home ERA, but is clocking a 2.17 ERA away from Wrigley. Some games he’s unhittable, in others he struggles to throw strikes, and in some games he gets hit around like a rag doll. These home/away splits are an unusual combination for a pitcher who has started 15 games, but I don’t think they will persist. For one, Harden has historically pitched better in the second half of the season than the first half (.321 second-half ERA vs. a .364 first-half ERA). Furthermore, Harden’s had better results with Koyie Hill behind the plate than Geovany Soto. (With Hill catching, Harden’s SO/BB ratio, batting average against, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage are all lower than when Soto is catching.) If these trends continue to play out over the next month, Lou will identify the pattern and Koyie Hill will be appointed Harden’s personal catcher.

2. Derrek Lee is having a great year. At the bat, 2009 has been Derrek’s best year since his monster 2005 season. The wrist is fully healed and Derrek’s got his power stroke back. In the past two years, Derrek has finished the season with 22 and 20 home runs respectively. This year, he already has 18 round-trippers. Assuming similar production, Derrek could very easily finish the season with 30-35 home runs. And if Lee is a legitimate power bat, the Cubs could potentially play August and September with 6 power hitters hacking away in the lineup.

1. 2003. The Cubs have done this before. In ‘03, the Cubs were .500 at the break. They went 1-2 immediately after the all-star game and then started stringing together wins. They finished with 88 wins and an NL Central flag. This scenario is still in the cards for the Cubs. The NL Central isn’t all that strong in 2009 and the Cubs find themselves only 2 games in back of St. Louis right now. We’re not likely to run away with the division, but as long as the team stays focused and keeps winning the games they should, I’m optimistic we’ll be in the mix at the end of September. The just-completed four game sweep of the Nationals certainly helps us on our way.

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